In an April 6, 2026, equity research update, the Couloir Capital Research Team reiterated a BUY rating on P2 Gold Inc. (PGLD:TSXV) with an unchanged fair value estimate of CA$0.93 per share, representing approximately 31% upside from the then-current price of CA$0.71.

The rating is supported by expanding drilling results at the Lucky Strike Zone, the securing of water rights as a critical de-risking milestone, and validation of the Sullivan Zone mineral resource ahead of a planned Q4-2026 feasibility study.

Recent Developments

On January 5, 2026, P2 Gold made a scheduled interest payment on its outstanding convertible debenture through share issuance, consistent with prior practice. On March 25, 2026, the company announced the settlement of CA$503,357 in insider shareholder working-capital loans through the issuance of 671,143 shares at a deemed price of CA$0.75 per share — a premium to the prevailing market price at the time — which the report characterizes as signaling insider conviction on intrinsic value.

Lucky Strike Zone

Drilling at the Lucky Strike Zone at the Gabbs Project in Nevada continues to be the primary upside driver in the investment case. A total of 33 holes have confirmed ore controls identical to those at the Sullivan Zone, with mineralization hosted within and beneath a tabular quartz monzonite unit underlain by pyroxenite. Higher-grade gold and copper are concentrated in the core of the system and along subvertical structures, with grades transitioning from gold-dominant near surface to copper-gold in the footwall. The combined mineralized package reaches up to approximately 125 meters in thickness.

Headline intercepts reported in the update include Hole GBR-089 returning 0.71 g/t Au and 0.31% Cu over 54.86 meters, including 1.28 g/t Au and 0.43% Cu over 22.86 meters, and Hole GBR-088 returning 0.65 g/t Au and 0.32% Cu over 68.58 meters, including 1.22 g/t Au and 0.64% Cu over 18.29 meters. Additional notable intercepts include GBR-081 at 0.53 g/t Au and 0.26% Cu over 67.06 meters and GBR-079 at 0.47 g/t Au and 0.23% Cu over 60.96 meters.

Critically, the current 33-hole program covers only the western half of the zone — a footprint of approximately 700 meters by 500 meters, comparable in size to the entire Sullivan Zone. The eastern half and all down-dip extensions remain untested. Couloir notes that management has explicitly stated Lucky Strike “has the potential to significantly exceed Sullivan in scale,” and the report states that based on structural and grade data to date, the analysts view that assessment as well supported.

Water Rights Acquisition

On March 25, 2026, P2 Gold announced a definitive agreement to acquire 2,500 acre-feet per year (ac-ft/yr) of water rights in the Gabbs Basin, Nevada, for a total consideration of US$10.625 million, or US$4,250 per ac-ft/yr. The payment structure is heavily deferred, with only US$100,000 due on execution and the US$10.525 million balance payable within 30 days of Nevada Division of Water Resources (NDWR) approval of the transfer, which is expected within six to twelve months.

The 2,500 ac-ft/yr acquired exceeds the process facility’s estimated requirement of approximately 1,500 ac-ft/yr at 9 Mtpa throughput, providing roughly 67% excess capacity that management attributes to project expansion optionality. Couloir characterizes water rights in Nevada as adjudicated property rights and one of the most binding long-term constraints for any open-pit mining project in the state, calling the acquisition a critical de-risking milestone that strengthens P2’s position relative to comparable Nevada-stage peers.

Sullivan Zone Drilling

The 24-hole, approximately 4,120-meter Sullivan infill and expansion program has been completed, with results consistently validating the mineral resource model underpinning the 2025 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) mine plan.

The Sullivan Zone demonstrates a thick, laterally continuous gold-copper system reaching up to approximately 175 meters in combined thickness, and remains open to the east and down-dip to the southwest. Headline results include Hole GBR-066 at 0.69 g/t Au and 0.31% Cu over 76.2 meters and Hole GBR-069 at 0.55 g/t Au and 0.34% Cu over 60.96 meters. P2 intends to return the RC drill to Sullivan following completion of the Lucky Strike program to further test down-dip extensions.

Capital Structure

P2 Gold has 262.1 million shares outstanding, with 16.0% held by insiders and management, 7.8% held by institutions (primarily VC/PE firms), and 76.1% held by the general public. Outstanding warrants total 64.27 million at a weighted average exercise price of CA$0.26, with the majority expiring between September 2026 and September 2027. All warrants are currently in the money.

An additional 7.83 million options are outstanding with exercise prices ranging from CA$0.06 to CA$0.54. If all in-the-money options and warrants were exercised, fully diluted shares would total approximately 306.6 million and would replenish the treasury by approximately CA$16.4 million.

Financial Position

As of December 31, 2025, P2 Gold held CA$9.9 million in cash and CA$2.25 million in working capital, compared to a cash position of CA$539,945 and a working capital deficit of CA$2.1 million at year-end 2024. Total assets grew to CA$11.1 million from CA$685,097 over the same period.

The company reported a net loss of CA$10.1 million for fiscal 2025, or CA$0.06 per share, compared to net income of CA$4.0 million in 2024.

Valuation

Couloir’s valuation is based on an EV/AuEq peer comparison using a group of Nevada-focused gold exploration companies with published resources but not yet in production. Using metal prices of US$4,500/oz for gold, US$70/oz for silver, and US$12,000/t for copper to calculate contained AuEq ounces, P2 Gold ranks as the second-largest resource holder in the peer group with approximately 3.1 million AuEq ounces, of which roughly one-third is in the measured and indicated category and two-thirds in the inferred category.

P2 Gold’s current EV/AuEq ratio of approximately 59.09x is approximately 14% below the trimmed peer group average of 67.42x (calculated by excluding the two highest and two lowest outliers). Applying the full peer group average EV/AuEq multiple of 91.19x to P2 Gold’s 3,111 koz resource base, and adjusting for CA$10.3 million in cash and CA$8.0 million in debt, yields an implied equity value of CA$286.0 million. On a fully diluted basis of 306.6 million shares, this produces a fair value of approximately CA$0.93 per share.

Catalysts and Outlook

Couloir identifies several factors expected to support the share price over the next 12 months. Enhancements to the PEA are anticipated through a revised mine plan incorporating alternative overburden removal methods, contract mining, and a two-stage development strategy — heap leach first, followed by the mill and SART plant — which the report says could meaningfully increase revenue, front-load cash flows, and reduce initial capital expenditures.

The company’s management team brings relevant experience from Pretium Resources, where they previously advanced a project from exploration to production. Additional drilling at Gabbs is seen as capable of potentially expanding the resource beyond 5 million AuEq ounces while upgrading a portion into higher-confidence categories. The company remains on track for a mid-2026 resource update and a Q4-2026 feasibility study.

Risks

Key risks identified by Couloir include exploration risk (further drilling may return results less favorable than anticipated), production risk (actual production rates, grades, and capital costs may differ from PEA estimates), commodity price risk (the company is described as highly leveraged to the gold price, which may decline in the short to medium term), broader market risk (including sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic conditions), and dilution risk (the company may need to issue additional shares to fund expenditures if non-dilutive options are unavailable).