Excerpt from this week’s: Technical Scoop: Whipsaw Action, Inflation Rise, Job Surprise

Gold and silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold continues to be battered by the ever-changing oil market. Oil up, gold down, stocks down, US$ Index up; oil down, gold up, stocks up, US$ Index down. This week oil was down so gold, silver, and the gold stocks enjoyed a good up week. Gold gained 2.2%, silver appears to be breaking out up 6.6%, while the gold stocks were up on the week with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) up 8.3% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) up 9.1%. That sounds great, but it could all reverse this week if oil prices soar once again. Other metals also gained with platinum up 3.3% and copper breaking out up 5.5%. Only palladium waffled, losing 2.5%.

We find the pattern on gold intriguing. Since that peak on January 29, 2026, we appear to have made an A wave down, a B wave up, a C wave down, a D wave up, and an E wave down. We closed at or near a converging 50-day and 100-day MA. A break of $4,800 would be helpful. Above $5,000, we could be breaking out. Above $5,300, new highs are possible. Below $4,300 there’s trouble and under $4,100 new lows lie ahead and the gold bull market becomes questionable.

It’s the same with silver. Silver appears to be breaking out above a downtrend line. We’d feel more comfortable with a break and close above $83. Support is at $71, $66, and $61. Below $61, a more serious bear could follow. Above $107.50, new highs are possible.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold seems to be uncertain as to which way to turn. Stronger than expected jobs data puts upward pressure on bond rates. But sinking consumer sentiment puts downward pressure on bond rates. Bond rates up, gold down. Bond rates down, gold up.

All that puts the Fed in a quandary, no matter who is in charge, whether it’s Powell or Warsh. A push to lower rates most likely pushes gold higher. The war in Iran also impacts gold. Logically, one would think that the war should be positive for gold. But oil prices have the perverse effect of oil up, gold down, oil down, gold up. All this continues to suggest that one should continue to hold gold, even through all this volatility. The patterns on gold, silver, and the TGD and HUI all suggest we should break higher. Typically, this is a weak period with lows usually seen in June or July before another strong up run gets underway into September.

That run into January 2026 was quite spectacular. We believe it ended as third wave up. If that’s correct, this is the fourth wave correction with a fifth wave to come that could take gold to $6,000 or even $7,000. Some think even higher, but we wouldn’t want to get ahead of ourselves. The pattern forming suggests anywhere from $6,300 to $6,500. Silver to around $135 to $140. The TGD to 1,200 to 1,300. But just in case, always keep the downside break points in mind.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold remains a safe-haven asset, despite the recent correction. The U.S. debt is huge and vulnerable. Inflation is sticky and could become stagflation. On a net basis, central banks are still buying and the purchase of real assets is growing, not shrinking. Of course, you’d never know it with the stock market at record prices.

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Whipsaw Action, Inflation Rise, Job Surprise
Copyright David Chapman 2026
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