Excerpt from this week’s: Technical Scoop: Thin MOU, Oversold Oil, Precious Bear

Gold and silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold bugs have had a miserable time of it lately. Gold is now down 5.6% in 2026. Silver is down 17.4%, the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is off 6.9%, and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) is down 5.2%. But is the glass half full or half empty? Over the past year gold remains up 25%, silver is up 64%, the HUI up 60%, and the TGD also up 60%. We recently saw the RSI dip under 30 (oversold) for gold, silver, and the gold stocks, but this recent pullback is mostly seeing a higher RSI, even as they make new price lows (except for the TGD).

All have fallen under the 200-day MA. All are in official bear markets. The intermediate (weekly) trend has turned down, a sign that one should be shifting out of the precious metals. But as our main essay points out, the case for holding gold and precious metals remains strong. It is not unusual for powerful up moves to be followed by a nasty correction. Despite the recent pullback, gold is up 153% from its 2022 low, silver is up 237%, the HUI is up 277%, and the TGD is up 255%.

To us, it has all the earmarks of a nasty wave four correction from that 2022 low, the last significant low and a probable 7.8-year cycle low. Given the drop and timing, this is most likely a half-cycle 3.9-year cycle low. We are in the zone. Interestingly, Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics (www.armstrongeconomics.com), a well-known forecaster with uncanny accuracy because of his computer program (aptly named Socrates), is now calling for a low in the precious metals and a move eventually to new all-time highs.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

On the week, gold fell 3.4%, silver dropped 10.5%, platinum was off 5.1%, and for the near precious metals’ palladium fell 5.9% and even copper was down 3.9%. The stocks were hammered again, with the HUI down 7.2% and the TGD down 5.4%. A strong US$ index was a catalyst for gold to drop as it gained 0.6% to fresh 52-week highs. At the same time, some currencies were making 52-week lows. Both the Canadian dollar and the euro had that distinction. Nonetheless, the case for a stronger US$ Index is not looking good. The large budget and external deficits continue to loom large. Central banks are still buying. That the stock markets were wobbling as were oil and energy stocks didn’t help. Thoughts remain that the Fed could hike interest rates because of rising inflation. The next FOMC is on July 28–29. In the interim, everything, it seems, was on sale.

All signs suggest that we may have put in an important low. However, we can’t celebrate until we confirm the low. For gold, a move back above $4,500 would be a positive sign. Above $4,800 and the low is confirmed. For silver, the points are $75 and $85, for the HUI they are 775 and 875, and for the TGD 900 and 1,000. Yes, we are down sharply from the all-time highs. But the case for gold remains strong, despite the sharp drop. Smart money is accumulating.

Source: www.stockcharts.com
Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Thin MOU, Oversold Oil, Precious Bear

Copyright David Chapman 2026

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